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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 23m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 2h 49m Charlotte CLT 10:50 → FLL 12:57AA 2585 6h 56m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:56 → ORD 07:53UA 543 3h 06m Chicago ORD 10:59 → FLL 15:13UA 279 8h 17m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → BUF 07:00 → JFK 08:30DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor 2h 44m New York JFK 11:14 → FLL 14:24DL 305 7h 24m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → BUF 07:01 → DFW 09:25AA 882 3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:37 → FLL 16:38AA 1373 9h 37m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295 6h 24m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:05 → LGA 07:32DL 4670 · flown by Endeavor 3h 23m New York LGA 10:55 → FLL 13:54DL 1181 7h 49m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → BUF 16:39 → CLT 18:39AA 2442 1h 29m Charlotte CLT 20:08 → FLL 22:15AA 2945 5h 36m 90% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON