tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4270 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record BUF 19:52 IAD 21:15 18% 9% 3.9% 82%
UA 4291 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record BUF 15:00 IAD 16:23 21% 10% 2.9% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965 7h 06m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 1h 08m Detroit DTW 08:50 → IAD 10:23DL 2884 3h 54m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:56 → ORD 07:53UA 543 2h 59m Chicago ORD 10:52 → IAD 13:49UA 1486 6h 53m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 6h 14m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → BUF 07:01 → DFW 09:25AA 882 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:26 → IAD 14:40AA 524 7h 39m 93% 79%
AmericanDetails → BUF 13:04 → CLT 15:04AA 1203 2h 33m Charlotte CLT 17:37 → IAD 19:11AA 1954 6h 07m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 3h 17m Chicago ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202 7h 28m 93% 73%
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 1h 11m Chicago ORD 20:14 → IAD 23:15UA 304 5h 11m 77% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON