tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501 8h 55m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 1h 40m Philadelphia PHL 08:26 → LAX 11:14AA 824 8h 54m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500 10h 14m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → BUF 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 1727 2h 51m Denver DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774 8h 57m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BUF 10:00 → JFK 11:24DL 5426 · flown by Endeavor 2h 24m New York JFK 13:48 → LAX 16:30DL 701 9h 30m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 3h 59m Charlotte CLT 12:00 → LAX 14:08AA 2005 11h 07m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → BUF 07:01 → DFW 09:25AA 882 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:43 → LAX 12:09AA 3181 8h 08m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → BUF 07:00 → JFK 08:30DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor 2h 35m New York JFK 11:05 → LAX 13:49DL 1905 9h 49m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 52m Chicago ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576 7h 26m 64% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON