Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4614 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day YX 4614 BUF 05:57 → LGA 07:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 860 BUF 17:59 → LGA 19:31 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4614 Republic	BUF 05:57	LGA 07:37	5%	4%	2.9%	no record
YX 5820 Republic	BUF 05:57	LGA 07:37	5%	4%	2.9%	no record
AA 4363 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 11:03	LGA 12:43	12%	5%	1.8%	89%
DL 5792 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 18:25	LGA 20:05	28%	11%	2.7%	86%worse than usual
AA 860 American	BUF 17:59	LGA 19:31	31%	12%	1.5%	no record
DL 5376 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 10:20	LGA 11:44	11%	7%	4.2%	89%
DL 4670 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 06:05	LGA 07:30	13%	5%	3.8%	87%
DL 5362 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 14:30	LGA 15:58	30%	17%	8.9%	70%
DL 5380 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 18:10	LGA 19:39	41%	20%	15.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON