Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 834 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 834 BUF 05:31 → MCO 08:07 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1691 BUF 12:46 → MCO 15:34 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 834 Southwest	BUF 05:31	MCO 08:07	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 908 Southwest	BUF 11:06	MCO 13:44	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 85 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 08:42	MCO 11:22	10%	4%	0.9%	85%
WN 715 Southwest	BUF 19:21	MCO 21:58	21%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 1691 Frontier Flight history →	BUF 12:46	MCO 15:34	21%	9%	1.5%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON