Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 1749 at 19:23, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1749 Delta	BUF 19:23	MSP 20:45	14%	6%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	6h 30m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898	1h 18m Detroit	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	4h 25m	97%	89%
United Details →	BUF 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 1727	3h 07m Denver	DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732	8h 46m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	7h 02m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BUF 07:00 → JFK 08:30DL 5284 · flown by Endeavor	3h 05m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	7h 50m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:05 → LGA 07:32DL 4670 · flown by Endeavor	3h 38m New York	LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409	8h 05m	99%	81%
United Details →	BUF 06:56 → ORD 07:53UA 543	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 10:34 → MSP 12:07UA 215	6h 11m	98%	80%
American Details →	BUF 07:01 → DFW 09:25AA 882	2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:49 → MSP 14:20AA 1668	8h 19m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BUF 15:50 → JFK 17:31DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor	49m New York	JFK 18:20 → MSP 21:00DL 4933 · flown by Endeavor	6h 10m	75%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON