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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 2049 at 11:07, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 2049 JetBlue Flight history → BUF 11:07 RSW 14:05 21% 7% 2.2% 92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 6h 11m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:56 → ORD 07:53UA 543 2h 58m Chicago ORD 10:51 → RSW 14:48UA 2137 7h 52m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124 6h 39m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 2h 14m Philadelphia PHL 09:00 → RSW 11:55AA 2365 6h 35m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 55m Detroit DTW 08:37 → RSW 11:35DL 2001 5h 06m 92% 78%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:05 → LGA 07:32DL 4670 · flown by Endeavor 2h 48m New York LGA 10:20 → RSW 13:17DL 379 7h 12m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → BUF 08:07 → ORD 09:17AA 1195 2h 56m Chicago ORD 12:13 → RSW 16:10AA 2561 8h 03m 96% 73%
AmericanDetails → BUF 16:39 → CLT 18:39AA 2442 2h 17m Charlotte CLT 20:56 → RSW 22:52AA 1176 6h 13m 96% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON