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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 32m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 49m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 2h 57m Philadelphia PHL 09:43 → SJU 13:56AA 614 8h 36m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:56 → ORD 07:53UA 543 56m Chicago ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44UA 1996 7h 48m 85% 73%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 08:42 → MCO 11:22B6 85 1h 11m Orlando MCO 12:33 → SJU 15:36B6 1133 6h 54m 93% 73%
DeltaDetails → BUF 15:50 → JFK 17:31DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 1h 58m New York JFK 19:29 → SJU 23:53DL 1859 8h 03m 94% 66%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 12:10 → JFK 13:41B6 1901 2h 02m New York JFK 15:43 → SJU 19:34B6 803 7h 24m 94% 60%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 14:18 → BOS 15:58B6 916 2h 32m Boston BOS 18:30 → SJU 22:31B6 561 8h 13m 94% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON