tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1017 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1017 Southwest BUF 06:51 TPA 09:42 4% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 845 Southwest BUF 16:31 TPA 19:23 18% 6% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 5h 29m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 2h 24m Charlotte CLT 10:25 → TPA 12:20AA 436 6h 19m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 2h 33m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 6h 21m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 3h 49m Philadelphia PHL 10:35 → TPA 13:20AA 2015 8h 00m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:56 → ORD 07:53UA 543 3h 26m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 8h 16m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 17:22 → TPA 18:57DL 1594 6h 41m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → BUF 10:00 → JFK 11:24DL 5426 · flown by Endeavor 3h 06m New York JFK 14:30 → TPA 17:39DL 2093 7h 39m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:05 → LGA 07:32DL 4670 · flown by Endeavor 3h 08m New York LGA 10:40 → TPA 13:28DL 2195 7h 23m 99% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON