Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 483 Delta Flight history →	BUR 13:55	ATL 21:42	20%	5%	0.9%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	9h 22m	99%	87%
United Details →	BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488	2h 21m San Francisco	SFO 10:51 → ATL 18:54UA 702	8h 52m	97%	78%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	1h 39m Denver	DEN 17:55 → ATL 23:11UA 248	7h 23m	93%	77%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	3h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:06 → ATL 19:36AA 2403	9h 35m	99%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON