tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3174 at 08:21, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3174 Southwest BUR 08:21 AUS 13:23 8% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 3h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 13:19 → AUS 17:13DL 2689 8h 13m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728 6h 55m 98% 78%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562 1h 03m Portland PDX 10:30 → AUS 16:38AS 540 7h 29m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 2h 23m Denver DEN 18:39 → AUS 21:57UA 1942 7h 09m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 3h 58m San Francisco SFO 16:19 → AUS 21:53UA 2150 9h 00m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 2h 36m San Francisco SFO 11:06 → AUS 16:56UA 2432 7h 54m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:36 → AUS 15:48AA 2103 6h 47m 98% 70%
FrontierDetails → BUR 13:14 → LAS 14:35F9 4108 2h 41m Las Vegas LAS 17:16 → AUS 22:16F9 4632 7h 02m 98% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 1h 06m San Francisco SFO 16:19 → AUS 21:53UA 2150 6h 08m 68% 51%
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 59m San Francisco SFO 13:20 → AUS 19:05UA 1116 6h 12m 65% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON