tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via DFW, leaving 12:23, is the safest bet: 40% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4447 Southwest BUR 07:01 BNA 12:59 6% 2% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205 9h 13m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317 8h 30m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562 1h 03m Portland PDX 10:30 → BNA 17:00AS 1376 7h 51m 94% 75%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 3h 00m San Francisco SFO 11:30 → BNA 18:06UA 499 9h 04m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 14m Denver DEN 17:30 → BNA 21:13UA 1300 6h 25m 89% 73%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:31 → BNA 17:38AA 2244 8h 37m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 2h 12m San Francisco SFO 14:33 → BNA 21:09UA 433 8h 16m 94% 68%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:23 → DFW 17:32AA 1208 1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:31 → BNA 21:34AA 2979 7h 11m 91% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:23 → DFW 17:32AA 1208 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:18 → BNA 20:17AA 1076 5h 54m 56% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON