Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Portland, leaving 07:09, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Boise on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 03m Portland	PDX 10:30 → BOI 12:49AS 2089 · flown by Horizon	4h 40m	94%	89%
Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	59m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → BOI 12:16DL 2095	4h 16m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:37 → BOI 17:51DL 2920	4h 16m	94%	77%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:01 → SEA 09:35AS 491	3h 33m Seattle	SEA 13:08 → BOI 15:32AS 467	7h 31m	98%	71%
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	1h 29m San Francisco	SFO 16:42 → BOI 19:32UA 5720 · flown by SkyWest	4h 47m	79%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON