Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 857 BUR 07:06 → DEN 10:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2187 BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 857 Southwest	BUR 07:06	DEN 10:29	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1852 Southwest	BUR 09:18	DEN 12:42	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1899 United	BUR 09:07	DEN 12:52	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 859 Southwest	BUR 13:03	DEN 16:27	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2686 Southwest	BUR 14:28	DEN 17:52	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2187 United Flight history →	BUR 12:48	DEN 16:16	15%	6%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON