Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2599 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2599 American Flight history →	BUR 07:01	DFW 12:19	11%	4%	1.5%	92%
AA 1208 American Flight history →	BUR 12:23	DFW 17:32	27%	8%	1.3%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 18m Portland	PDX 10:45 → DFW 16:42AS 392	7h 33m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	3h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:50 → DFW 17:33DL 2811	8h 33m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	2h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	6h 48m	98%	77%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	2h 37m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	7h 11m	96%	75%
United Details →	BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488	1h 55m San Francisco	SFO 10:25 → DFW 16:08UA 2842	7h 06m	94%	67%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:01 → SEA 09:35AS 491	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 12:13 → DFW 18:21AS 549	9h 20m	97%	67%
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	1h 48m San Francisco	SFO 17:01 → DFW 22:46UA 1336	7h 01m	85%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON