Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 13:45, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	3h 47m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638	10h 58m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	1h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	10h 19m	98%	64%
United Details →	BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488	2h 15m San Francisco	SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380	9h 18m	97%	59%
United Details →	BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386	1h 34m San Francisco	SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300	8h 25m	87%	57%
Alaska Details →	BUR 10:53 → SEA 13:29AS 1388	2h 51m Seattle	SEA 16:20 → HNL 19:16AS 121	11h 23m	92%	52%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 03m Portland	PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813	9h 19m	94%	48%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:00 → SEA 09:36AS 491	2h 33m Seattle	SEA 12:09 → HNL 15:20AS 899	11h 20m	96%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON