Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via DFW, leaving 12:23, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BUR 12:23 → DFW 17:32AA 1208	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:31 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 25m	72%	56%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON