tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847 7h 54m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 44m Denver DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32UA 2408 7h 44m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 2h 20m San Francisco SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 9h 09m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:58 → IAD 18:13AA 1863 8h 12m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 1h 21m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453 8h 10m 75% 60%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:23 → DFW 17:32AA 1208 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:46 → IAD 22:54AA 2254 7h 31m 79% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 54m San Francisco SFO 13:15 → IAD 21:25UA 1791 7h 32m 61% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON