tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299 8h 53m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 7h 15m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 52m Denver DEN 18:08 → IAH 21:40UA 1055 6h 52m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 3h 45m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27UA 1387 9h 25m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 1h 59m San Francisco SFO 17:12 → IAH 23:15UA 1649 7h 30m 89% 73%
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 2h 14m San Francisco SFO 14:35 → IAH 20:39UA 2831 7h 46m 95% 73%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:01 → SEA 09:35AS 491 1h 17m Seattle SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16AS 438 8h 15m 91% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON