Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	2h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:50 → IND 22:59DL 2228	7h 24m	98%	81%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	1h 37m Denver	DEN 17:53 → IND 22:30UA 1199	6h 42m	93%	74%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:17 → IND 19:45AA 1413	9h 44m	99%	70%
United Details →	BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488	1h 35m San Francisco	SFO 10:05 → IND 17:52UA 2274	7h 50m	92%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON