Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	8h 12m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 20m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	9h 14m	98%	77%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00AA 578	10h 59m	99%	71%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:01 → SEA 09:35AS 491	3h 51m Seattle	SEA 13:26 → JFK 21:14AS 34	11h 13m	98%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BUR 12:23 → DFW 17:32AA 1208	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:32 → JFK 23:10AA 1248	7h 47m	73%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON