Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3870 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 3870 BUR 07:16 → LAS 08:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4108 BUR 13:14 → LAS 14:35 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3870 Southwest	BUR 07:16	LAS 08:30	6%	2%	1.8%	no record
WN 1294 Southwest	BUR 08:31	LAS 09:45	10%	3%	1.7%	no record
WN 864 Southwest	BUR 10:36	LAS 11:50	12%	3%	1.5%	no record
WN 4474 Southwest	BUR 11:26	LAS 12:40	16%	4%	1.5%	no record
WN 4476 Southwest	BUR 17:06	LAS 18:20	19%	10%	1.2%	no record
WN 410 Southwest	BUR 13:11	LAS 14:25	21%	8%	1.5%	no record
WN 4517 Southwest	BUR 14:01	LAS 15:15	22%	7%	2.1%	no record
WN 2160 Southwest	BUR 12:16	LAS 13:30	23%	6%	1.5%	no record
WN 869 Southwest	BUR 15:56	LAS 17:10	25%	12%	1.6%	no record
F9 4108 Frontier Flight history →	BUR 13:14	LAS 14:35	29%	10%	2.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON