Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	1h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → MCO 23:55DL 2056	8h 20m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01DL 2024	8h 01m	97%	78%
United Details →	BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187	1h 36m Denver	DEN 17:52 → MCO 23:41UA 259	7h 53m	93%	78%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:31 → MCO 17:21AA 1692	7h 20m	92%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BUR 12:23 → DFW 17:32AA 1208	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → MCO 22:20AA 2186	6h 57m	71%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON