Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 893 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 893 BUR 07:16 → PHX 08:57 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6246 BUR 16:38 → PHX 18:22 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 893 Southwest	BUR 07:16	PHX 08:57	4%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 1049 Southwest	BUR 08:27	PHX 10:08	6%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 856 Southwest	BUR 10:42	PHX 12:23	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
MQ 4220 Envoy	BUR 09:58	PHX 11:35	14%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 898 Southwest	BUR 14:11	PHX 15:52	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
OO 6246 SkyWest	BUR 16:38	PHX 18:22	27%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON