Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 3224 at 08:20, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 3224 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 08:20	RDM 10:46	7%	4%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	BUR 17:33 → SEA 20:09AS 537	2h 44m Seattle	SEA 22:53 → RDM 23:59AS 2094 · flown by Horizon	6h 26m	95%	81%
United Details →	BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488	1h 58m San Francisco	SFO 10:28 → RDM 12:12UA 2153	5h 10m	94%	74%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:01 → SEA 09:35AS 491	1h 52m Seattle	SEA 11:27 → RDM 12:30AS 275	5h 29m	95%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	1h 16m San Francisco	SFO 16:29 → RDM 18:10UA 2418	4h 25m	72%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON