Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1233 at 16:16, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1233 Southwest	BUR 16:16	RNO 17:45	15%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	1h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595	5h 09m	98%	88%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:01 → SEA 09:35AS 491	2h 18m Seattle	SEA 11:53 → RNO 13:50AS 273	6h 49m	97%	71%
United Details →	BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488	2h 06m San Francisco	SFO 10:36 → RNO 11:49UA 1845	4h 47m	95%	71%
Frontier Details →	BUR 13:14 → LAS 14:35F9 4108	2h 11m Las Vegas	LAS 16:46 → RNO 18:22F9 4241	5h 08m	98%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	1h 17m San Francisco	SFO 16:30 → RNO 17:44UA 2690	3h 59m	73%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON