Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 22–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 491 BUR 07:01 → SEA 09:35 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 478 BUR 14:02 → SEA 16:36 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 491 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 07:01	SEA 09:35	22%	3%	1.6%	87%
AS 537 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 17:33	SEA 20:09	27%	6%	1.3%	78%
AS 1389 Alaska	BUR 12:13	SEA 14:48	27%	5%	1.2%	no record
AS 478 Alaska	BUR 14:02	SEA 16:36	29%	5%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON