Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 488 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 488 BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest UA 520 BUR 09:35 → SFO 11:05 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 488 United Flight history →	BUR 07:02	SFO 08:30	20%	6%	1.0%	80%
WN 914 Southwest	BUR 12:33	SFO 14:00	24%	8%	2.0%	no record
WN 1313 Southwest	BUR 16:46	SFO 18:13	25%	12%	1.8%	no record
UA 1066 United	BUR 16:09	SFO 17:39	28%	14%	0.8%	no record
WN 1146 Southwest	BUR 08:21	SFO 09:48	29%	9%	2.5%	no record
UA 2386 United Flight history →	BUR 10:53	SFO 12:21	35%	12%	0.8%	52%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	BUR 13:45	SFO 15:13	36%	14%	0.8%	66%
UA 520 United	BUR 09:35	SFO 11:05	38%	12%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON