Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 928 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 928 BUR 07:26 → SMF 08:56 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1147 BUR 16:02 → SMF 17:32 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 928 Southwest	BUR 07:26	SMF 08:56	2%	1%	1.6%	no record
WN 930 Southwest	BUR 09:02	SMF 10:32	4%	2%	1.5%	no record
WN 931 Southwest	BUR 11:27	SMF 12:57	6%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 932 Southwest	BUR 12:42	SMF 14:12	8%	4%	1.3%	no record
WN 933 Southwest	BUR 14:27	SMF 15:57	12%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 1147 Southwest	BUR 16:02	SMF 17:32	13%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON