Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2950 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 2950 BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4427 BWI 10:11 → ATL 12:19 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2950 Delta Flight history →	BWI 05:40	ATL 07:31	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 4475 Southwest	BWI 07:01	ATL 09:03	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1592 Delta Flight history →	BWI 10:33	ATL 12:24	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 943 Southwest	BWI 09:36	ATL 11:36	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2579 Delta Flight history →	BWI 07:00	ATL 08:52	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 2562 Delta Flight history →	BWI 08:17	ATL 10:10	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 801 Delta Flight history →	BWI 11:52	ATL 13:41	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2711 Delta Flight history →	BWI 14:08	ATL 16:05	9%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 2799 Delta Flight history →	BWI 17:00	ATL 19:08	10%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 1267 Delta Flight history →	BWI 18:20	ATL 20:34	11%	4%	0.6%	74%
WN 3081 Southwest	BWI 13:57	ATL 15:59	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 2633 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 06:35	ATL 09:00	15%	5%	0.8%	77%
WN 946 Southwest	BWI 18:27	ATL 20:27	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 4427 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:11	ATL 12:19	19%	7%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON