Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 950 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 950 BWI 06:57 → BDL 08:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 19 BWI 19:30 → BDL 20:53 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 950 Southwest	BWI 06:57	BDL 08:20	4%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 2662 Southwest	BWI 10:37	BDL 12:00	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2853 Southwest	BWI 16:05	BDL 17:28	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 19 Southwest	BWI 19:30	BDL 20:53	16%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON