Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3150 at 17:01, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3150 Southwest	BWI 17:01	BHM 18:05	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	6h 30m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	6h 07m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164	3h 57m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	5h 30m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163	5h 37m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	6h 50m	99%	88%
American Details →	BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 08:59 → BHM 09:23AA 5043 · flown by PSA	5h 21m	99%	88%
American Details →	BWI 09:08 → DFW 11:30AA 1403	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:03 → BHM 14:58AA 3884 · flown by Envoy	6h 50m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON