Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5813 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 5813 BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 975 BWI 17:35 → BOS 19:07 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5813 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 06:21	BOS 08:00	4%	2%	1.2%	97%
WN 4970 Southwest	BWI 06:37	BOS 08:09	5%	1%	1.1%	no record
DL 5703 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 09:00	BOS 10:38	9%	3%	0.9%	91%
WN 4382 Southwest	BWI 08:27	BOS 09:59	10%	2%	1.7%	no record
WN 560 Southwest	BWI 10:42	BOS 12:14	12%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 5644 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 18:22	BOS 20:07	19%	8%	0.9%	67%
DL 5668 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 13:45	BOS 15:23	19%	7%	0.8%	80%
WN 2849 Southwest	BWI 15:47	BOS 17:18	29%	12%	0.8%	no record
WN 4589 Southwest	BWI 14:32	BOS 16:04	29%	11%	0.8%	no record
WN 1295 Southwest	BWI 19:46	BOS 21:17	29%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 975 Southwest	BWI 17:35	BOS 19:07	30%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON