Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	10h 15m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	7h 39m	90%	83%
United Details →	BWI 08:08 → SFO 11:15UA 2192	2h 35m San Francisco	SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626	10h 09m	100%	74%
United Details →	BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412	50m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	7h 18m	78%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON