tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1332 at 10:41 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1332 Southwest BWI 10:41 CLE 12:06 8% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 4969 Southwest BWI 15:51 CLE 17:16 18% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 5h 52m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357 2h 27m Minneapolis MSP 15:38 → CLE 18:35DL 1118 7h 00m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → CLE 13:32DL 775 6h 32m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545 7h 03m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670 3h 13m Charlotte CLT 11:06 → CLE 12:49AA 848 6h 34m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749 3h 25m Chicago ORD 12:55 → CLE 15:25UA 1878 7h 09m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:42DL 1350 6h 50m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 56m Detroit DTW 08:35 → CLE 09:37DL 5392 · flown by Endeavor 3h 29m 94% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON