Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1708 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 1708 BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 3075 BWI 12:14 → CLT 13:52 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1708 American Flight history →	BWI 05:02	CLT 06:26	4%	2%	0.7%	96%
AA 2670 American Flight history →	BWI 06:15	CLT 07:53	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
AA 1216 American	BWI 10:40	CLT 12:15	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1241 Southwest	BWI 08:21	CLT 09:49	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1531 American	BWI 15:02	CLT 16:39	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 49 Southwest	BWI 14:06	CLT 15:35	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3121 American	BWI 19:08	CLT 20:42	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4594 Southwest	BWI 19:56	CLT 21:25	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 3075 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 12:14	CLT 13:52	21%	8%	1.2%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON