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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4393 at 13:15, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4393 Southwest BWI 13:15 CVG 14:54 12% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160 5h 45m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149 5h 28m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357 2h 39m Minneapolis MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703 7h 02m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 2h 38m Charlotte CLT 09:04 → CVG 10:33AA 430 5h 31m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 6h 08m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169 6h 54m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670 3h 07m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → CVG 12:29AA 1533 6h 14m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 19:32 → CVG 21:01DL 2248 6h 53m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON