Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 992 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 992 BWI 06:13 → DEN 08:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1406 BWI 16:51 → DEN 18:58 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 992 Southwest	BWI 06:13	DEN 08:12	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 994 Southwest	BWI 11:02	DEN 13:00	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 993 Southwest	BWI 07:56	DEN 10:05	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2412 United Flight history →	BWI 08:30	DEN 10:25	12%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 2012 United Flight history →	BWI 16:23	DEN 18:18	19%	5%	0.6%	79%
WN 552 Southwest	BWI 18:21	DEN 20:27	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1406 Southwest	BWI 16:51	DEN 18:58	24%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → DEN 10:03DL 2849	5h 43m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 39m	95%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON