Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1403 at 09:08 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1403 BWI 09:08 → DFW 11:30 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1213 BWI 19:33 → DFW 21:48 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1403 American Flight history →	BWI 09:08	DFW 11:30	12%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 2314 American Flight history →	BWI 11:58	DFW 14:13	17%	7%	0.9%	72%
F9 1475 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:21	DFW 15:38	24%	9%	0.8%	68%
AA 2669 American	BWI 16:29	DFW 19:01	24%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 1213 American Flight history →	BWI 19:33	DFW 21:48	27%	8%	1.0%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON