Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2601 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 2601 BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 3081 BWI 18:15 → DTW 20:00 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2601 Delta Flight history →	BWI 06:08	DTW 07:39	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2341 Delta Flight history →	BWI 09:39	DTW 11:07	9%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 1546 Delta Flight history →	BWI 12:33	DTW 14:07	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 4477 Southwest	BWI 12:41	DTW 14:18	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2480 Delta Flight history →	BWI 17:27	DTW 19:09	13%	5%	0.6%	81%
F9 3081 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 18:15	DTW 20:00	18%	9%	0.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON