tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Charlotte, leaving 05:02, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 1h 53m Charlotte CLT 08:19 → EWR 10:18AA 1707 5h 16m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 2h 36m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 48m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 09:14 → EWR 12:56DL 2895 6h 36m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 41m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:41AA 1697 6h 26m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749 2h 41m Chicago ORD 12:11 → EWR 15:39UA 606 7h 23m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:02 → EWR 13:15DL 8883 6h 15m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 35m Houston IAH 09:51 → EWR 14:30UA 2402 8h 30m 99% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON