Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 408 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 408 BWI 06:19 → FLL 09:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2595 BWI 16:00 → FLL 18:41 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 408 Southwest	BWI 06:19	FLL 09:09	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2097 Southwest	BWI 08:19	FLL 11:02	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2293 Southwest	BWI 20:31	FLL 23:19	16%	7%	0.8%	no record
B6 2995 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 08:00	FLL 10:41	18%	5%	1.1%	80%
WN 1002 Southwest	BWI 12:42	FLL 15:30	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1003 Southwest	BWI 17:06	FLL 19:48	23%	7%	1.0%	no record
F9 4411 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:05	FLL 15:47	27%	10%	2.1%	59%
B6 2595 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 16:00	FLL 18:41	28%	13%	1.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON