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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1005 at 11:01, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1005 Southwest BWI 11:01 GRR 12:49 10% 2% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547 6h 03m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058 6h 41m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357 2h 51m Minneapolis MSP 16:02 → GRR 18:26DL 1555 6h 51m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749 3h 28m Chicago ORD 12:58 → GRR 15:13UA 2751 6h 57m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210 7h 43m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 11m Detroit DTW 08:50 → GRR 09:54DL 3500 · flown by SkyWest 3h 46m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480 3h 46m Detroit DTW 22:55 → GRR 23:57DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor 6h 30m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341 1h 49m Detroit DTW 12:56 → GRR 13:55DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor 4h 16m 96% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON