Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1039 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 1039 BWI 06:04 → LAS 08:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1041 BWI 19:26 → LAS 21:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1039 Southwest	BWI 06:04	LAS 08:08	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 860 Southwest	BWI 08:06	LAS 10:13	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1044 Southwest	BWI 14:57	LAS 16:56	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1041 Southwest	BWI 19:26	LAS 21:25	20%	6%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 11m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	BWI 07:11 → DAL 09:17WN 15	1h 32m Dallas	DAL 10:49 → LAS 11:39WN 1370	7h 28m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 20m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 04m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON