Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1974 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1974 BWI 06:16 → LAX 08:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1546 BWI 19:23 → LAX 21:52 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1974 Southwest	BWI 06:16	LAX 08:40	7%	1%	0.8%	no record
UA 1591 United	BWI 08:03	LAX 10:53	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4971 Southwest	BWI 14:41	LAX 17:01	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1546 United Flight history →	BWI 19:23	LAX 21:52	19%	8%	0.6%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 50m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	7h 55m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	7h 56m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON