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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 59m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → LGA 10:41DL 513 5h 01m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764 7h 25m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 42m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 2h 26m Detroit DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589 5h 42m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 33m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 2h 54m Charlotte CLT 09:20 → LGA 11:15AA 1150 6h 13m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 1h 00m Boston BOS 09:00 → LGA 10:22DL 5732 · flown by Republic 4h 01m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670 3h 54m Charlotte CLT 11:47 → LGA 13:46AA 2268 7h 31m 99% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON