tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 237 Southwest BWI 08:21 MCI 10:09 7% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1444 Southwest BWI 13:21 MCI 15:08 13% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 2h 08m Minneapolis MSP 10:02 → MCI 11:35DL 1349 6h 15m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 2h 25m Charlotte CLT 08:51 → MCI 10:25AA 2946 6h 23m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 6h 31m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:11 → DAL 09:17WN 15 54m Dallas DAL 10:11 → MCI 11:58WN 2636 5h 47m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → MCI 12:18DL 2747 6h 18m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 7h 12m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 01m Detroit DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826 4h 36m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 15m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 8h 52m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BWI 13:45 → BOS 15:23DL 5668 · flown by Republic 47m Boston BOS 16:10 → MCI 18:48DL 314 6h 03m 72% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON