Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1053 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1053 BWI 06:16 → MCO 08:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3663 BWI 15:21 → MCO 17:53 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1053 Southwest	BWI 06:16	MCO 08:43	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3373 Southwest	BWI 08:16	MCO 10:45	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1057 Southwest	BWI 09:06	MCO 11:33	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1058 Southwest	BWI 11:41	MCO 14:06	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 790 Southwest	BWI 12:56	MCO 15:23	13%	5%	1.1%	no record
F9 3273 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 09:21	MCO 11:54	16%	6%	1.2%	81%
WN 2541 Southwest	BWI 14:56	MCO 17:24	18%	7%	4.3%	no record
WN 1066 Southwest	BWI 19:46	MCO 22:14	18%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 1887 Southwest	BWI 17:22	MCO 19:49	19%	7%	1.0%	no record
WN 1064 Southwest	BWI 18:03	MCO 20:27	21%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 1065 Southwest	BWI 18:57	MCO 21:21	23%	7%	0.9%	no record
F9 3663 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 15:21	MCO 17:53	23%	10%	4.9%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON