Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4669 at 09:31, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4669 Southwest	BWI 09:31	MEM 10:51	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 32m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 52m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 08:48 → MEM 09:47DL 1627	4h 39m	96%	88%
American Details →	BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708	3h 49m Charlotte	CLT 10:15 → MEM 11:09AA 1790	7h 07m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → MEM 14:15DL 733	6h 58m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	2h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:07DL 1681	6h 15m	100%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON