Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1183 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1183 BWI 06:00 → MIA 08:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1779 BWI 19:11 → MIA 22:02 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1183 American Flight history →	BWI 06:00	MIA 08:46	10%	3%	1.2%	87%
WN 4480 Southwest	BWI 08:27	MIA 11:09	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
F9 1665 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:51	MIA 13:47	22%	9%	1.6%	67%
WN 4520 Southwest	BWI 19:56	MIA 22:37	27%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 1779 American	BWI 19:11	MIA 22:02	30%	10%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON